Australia’s securities regulator has made its position on prediction markets more explicit. In a 30 October statement, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said it was not convinced that allowing retail consumers to trade event-based prediction contracts was in the public interest. The statement responds to a fast-growing cross-border product market in which platforms may be accessible online without holding the licences or offering the protections consumers associate with regulated Australian investment services.[1]
ASIC drew attention to the characteristics of binary-outcome contracts, including the possibility that a customer loses the entire amount staked if an event resolves the other way. Its existing ban on selling binary options to retail clients in Australia is a relevant part of that assessment. The statement should not be misreported as a new statutory ban on every prediction contract: the legal classification of a particular product and the role of an Australian intermediary still require analysis.[1]
Where responsibilities differ
The regulator’s warning separates access channels
| Situation | What ASIC emphasises |
|---|---|
| Offshore platform contacted directly | Australian protections may not apply |
| Australian AFS licensee facilitates access | Existing licence, conduct and product obligations remain relevant |
| Binary options sold to retail clients | Separate Australian product-intervention ban already applies |
| Market seeking Australian authorisation | Applicable licensing requirements must be assessed before operation |
For Australian financial-services licensees contemplating referral, execution, custody or other access arrangements, the operational question is not merely whether the offshore platform calls a product a prediction market. Firms must examine what the contract legally is, what regulated activity they perform, who contracts with the customer and which local obligations apply. Disclaimers about offshore execution cannot automatically displace Australian licence duties.[1]
ASIC also said no prediction-market operator has been licensed as an Australian financial market operator under the relevant framework. That is a statement about the domestic licensed venue population at the time, not proof that all foreign platforms are unlawful in every jurisdiction. In the United States, event-contract disputes involve a different regulatory perimeter, so an American federal court or CFTC position cannot simply be carried over to Australia.[1]
The near-term consequence is a higher evidentiary threshold for Australian firms considering this product category. Marketing, product governance, financial resources and customer protections will need to be mapped to the actual contract and licence. ASIC’s release does not identify a new application timetable or grant approval for any named operator.[1]
Sources & further reading
- ASIC statement: prediction markets Australian Securities and Investments Commission · 30 Oct 2026 · Accessed 31 Oct 2026
- Prediction markets ASIC Moneysmart · Accessed 31 Oct 2026