Adjacent said on 14 October that it is using Furnace’s reference data to screen prediction-market contracts for economic equivalence. The integration addresses a basic obstacle to combining prices: similarly named contracts can settle under different rules.[1]
The distinction has practical consequences. Consider an illustrative pair of election markets: one pays on a certified winner and another on the person taking office. They can produce different outcomes if certification and inauguration diverge. Treating them as interchangeable would introduce a benchmark-design error before any weighting decision.[1]
Screening, weighting and interpretation
Contract screening is the first stage. Adjacent’s methodology separately assigns each index its eligible universe and weights. Constituents may be included, held or excluded during calculation, while composite indices can contain other indices. These decisions determine how selected markets contribute to the published figure.[2]
A feed consumer also needs the correct unit. Adjacent’s API documentation distinguishes probability-based political indices from the RED-TR total-return index. The same printed number can therefore express two different quantities. Applying one conversion indiscriminately would change the meaning of the data.[4]
Two meanings of an illustrative index level of 125
| Measure | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Probability-based political index | 75% implied win probability: subtract 50 from the index level. |
| Total-return index (RED-TR) | 25% cumulative return from a starting level of 100. |
Adjacent’s current reference-rate service provides value histories, named market sources and methodologies through public pages and a JSON API. Those public snapshots are delayed by 15 minutes. A broker using them for research needs to preserve that timing alongside any current executable venue quote. The published rate is a comparison benchmark, not an order that can be filled.[3]
For an institutional data workflow, the partnership’s significance is the work done before aggregation: establishing which contracts belong together. A common mapping can organise the underlying exposures; the index methodology still controls inclusion, weighting and interpretation. Neither step can substitute for the other.[2]
Sources & further reading
- Adjacent partners with Furnace Adjacent Press · 14 Oct 2026 · Accessed 21 Oct 2026
- How Adjacent indices work Adjacent · Accessed 21 Oct 2026
- Reference Rates Adjacent · Accessed 21 Oct 2026
- Indices: scales, composition and data access Adjacent API documentation · Accessed 21 Oct 2026